Feasibility study for parcel №15 on Абыкеева: market and seasonality, real streets around the plot, furnished floor plans with every room checked for fit and plumbing, a 3D model, a line-by-line budget and a return model. Switch between Comfort 8 and Max 11 anywhere on the page.
| Address | ул. Абыкеева 15, Baet, Issyk-Kul district |
| Parcel | №15 · 2-03-03-1002-021… |
| Plot | 16 × 50 m = 800 m² (8 sotka) |
| Orientation | 16 m frontage on Абыкеева, the south (lake) side; runs 50 m north, uphill (~1 m fall) |
| Neighbours | №17 to the west, with a small building near the street; parcels to the east |
| Elevation | ≈ 1,644 m (lake 1,607 m) |
| To the shoreline | ≈ 1.65 km · 4 min drive |
| To the ring road | ≈ 270 m via ул. Жумаева |
| Cholpon-Ata centre | ≈ 9 km |
| 100 m / 500 m shore ban | Not affected |
| Seismic zone | 9 points: RC frame + belts |
Streets and buildings come from OpenStreetMap. The parcel's position comes from your cadastre.kg screenshot, placed on Абыкеева by measuring from parcel №17. Expect it to be within a few metres. Open in OSM → · 2GIS (№17) →
Issyk-Kul drew about 2.6M visitors in 2025, up from 1.3M in 2023. The share staying in registered lodging rose from 50% to 67%, so guests are moving away from informal private rooms. Supply is growing just as fast: hotels and guesthouses in the region tripled to 1,833 in six years. The main markets are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and China, plus domestic weekenders from Bishkek.
The swimming season runs from late June to the end of August. Only 7–8 of about 150 pansionats stay open in winter. That is the opening for a small, warm, well-reviewed house near a hot spring.
| Segment | Jul–Aug | Jun, Sep | Oct–May |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private-sector room, north shore | $23–46 | −20–40% | $6–17 |
| Mid guesthouse (Bosteri “Ademi”) | $51–57 | — | — |
| Hotel Dolinka, Kara-Oi (heated pool) | ~$95 | — | open |
| Ak-Bermet hot spring, double | — | — | $73–80 |
| Kara-Oi cottage, whole unit | $46–57 | — | — |
| Resorts (Karven, Raduga, Baytur) | $158–208 | — | — |
| This project, lake-view double | $55 | $35–38 | $25–30 |
Prices are per room per night, converted at 87.5 KGS/USD; sources are below. Our rates sit in the middle of the guesthouse band because we're 1.6 km from the beach. Sea-view and family rooms are priced off the lake-view double (×0.8–1.3).
| Property | Rooms | Angle | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evita, Kara-Oi | 12 | Guesthouse, same size class | Direct |
| Issyk-Kul Nomad | 10 | Guesthouse | Direct |
| Ogo | 9 | BBQ, garden | Direct |
| LETO · Relax Point | 6 · 6 | Small guesthouses | Direct |
| Hotel Dolinka | 15 | Heated pool, food, open all year | Benchmark for winter |
| Ak-Bermet | — | Hot spring | Demand driver for winter guests, not a rival |
| Enesay Dilorom · Eurasia · Fontan | 185 · 81 · 73 | Large pansionats | Different buyer |
| Lalafo short-term rentals, Kara-Oi | ~21 | Cottages and rooms, informal | Price floor in winter |
What top-rated competitors advertise: parking and guarded grounds · BBQ and topchan · pool or banya · breakfast · “5 min to the lake” · hot-spring proximity. This house covers all of them except the pool. The banya and hot tub in phase 2 stand in for it at a tenth of the cost.
The street is on the lake side, so the house's sunny south side faces the street. If cars parked along the street, the garden would end up behind the house, in its shadow: in January a two-storey house shades about 19 m of ground to the north. So the garden goes in front. A 3.2 m driveway runs up the east side, inside the gap the house must leave to the boundary anyway, to a parking court behind the house. The entrance faces that court. The water and power connections and the wastewater treatment unit sit by the street fence, so the pump-out truck never enters the plot. The same spot can later connect to the planned central sewer line along the street.
Structure. A 9.6 m wide shell with a central corridor (1.28 m clear). The rooms sit in two 5.1 m bands, one each side of it. Every room gets 4.74 m of clear depth: a 2.0 m en-suite at the corridor end, a 2.0 m bed with its headboard against the en-suite wall, and at least 0.74 m to walk past the foot of the bed to the window or balcony. Partitions are 120 mm brick on the bay lines. The stair has two 1.0 m flights with a half landing, 18 risers of 172 mm and 280 mm treads.
Plumbing. Neighbouring rooms are mirrored, so their en-suites sit back to back on one partition and share a Ø110 drain stack (red dots). Upstairs en-suites sit directly above downstairs en-suites, the kitchen or the hall WC, never above a bed, so a leak or a flushing noise never lands on a sleeping guest. The stacks drop into one collector under the corridor slab. It leaves through the south wall at 2% fall to the treatment unit 16 m away by the street. Hot water comes from two 300 L heaters in the stair-side utility on a recirculation loop, so showers run hot within seconds.
Furniture fit. Every room is checked by a script on a 2.5 cm grid. A person needs a 0.6 m clear path (0.55 m in Max rooms) from the door to the bed, the wardrobe, the window or balcony door and the en-suite door, and the room door's leaf must swing clear. In the en-suite, the shower tray must be at least 0.8 m and there must be 0.55 m clear in front of the WC. The table below is the script's output, not a promise.
Compact rooms done right. In Max 11 the 1.4 m bed sits against one wall, which is normal in budget hotels. That leaves 0.7–1.0 m on the open side. Hooks and a hat shelf go over the passage, luggage goes in drawers under the bed, and the en-suite gets a sliding door. The shared kitchen sits under the two west upstairs en-suites, with its sink right on their drain stack.
Every quantity comes from the plan above: perimeter, wall area, slab area and room count. Unit prices are 2025–26 Kyrgyz listings and contractor price lists. V means the price is from a cited source; E is our estimate and needs a local quote. Click a group to expand it.
The land is excluded: you already own it. Similar Kara-Oi plots list at $3,800–9,200 per sotka, so yours is worth roughly $30–70k. Buy materials in January–March, when they're 20–30% cheaper. Build the shell April–July and finish over autumn and winter, to open in June the following year.
The scenario multiplies occupancy and rates: cautious ×0.75 / ×0.9, strong ×1.15 / ×1.1. Rates grow 5%/yr and costs 6%/yr. Year 1 sells only the phase-1 rooms at 70% of curve occupancy; year 2 sells every room at 88%. Compact rooms are priced 15–28% below a standard double.
Not verified anywhere public: small-guesthouse occupancy rates, guest nationality split, the patent and single-tax rate for lodging (we used 4% of revenue), grid-connection and well prices, and the exact side setback. These are flagged E in the budget. Replace them with local quotes before committing.